Post Budget Update, and the impact on the New Zealand economy
I’ve just watched Tony Alexander’s post Budget Update. As always, Tony is informative and interesting. But the key point for me this year, following yesterday’s Budget announcements by the Government, is that we are not an economy short of customers or opportunity. The economy seems to be in a good spot. However, we are seriously constrained by our access to labour. And that is not going to get any easier:
- The unemployment rates used in the Government’s projections are already out of date given the current pressures on the labour supply. The unemployment forecast is too high, even without considering the recently announced restrictions on immigration (short term temporary workers).
- Construction is going gangbusters – here and offshore. There is a positive outlook for our primary sector and a demand for infrastructure and warehousing. New Zealand is seeing the biggest construction boom since the 1970s.
- The extra benefits announced in the Budget are not going to incentivise people to get out and work.
- The Australian Government has announced a raft of stimulus packages – including grants to build houses, and a lot of extra cash for aged care facilities. In addition, Australia once again is going through a mining boom. All of this means a demand for more workers. And they can’t access their usual staff from the UK etc. They do however have an open border with New Zealand….
- As other economies are booming – expect to see negative flows of kiwi citizens – once again heading offshore.
- The US Government is spending $3 trillion to stimulate its economy. This will make it harder to target the skilled workers promised by the NZ Government’s latest immigration announcements.

How does this impact on you in business in New Zealand?
Resource Planning
We need to reconsider our approach to Strategic Planning. Traditionally we would work out where a business needs to invest to get the desired customers and return. We would then look at how we resource that growth. We need to reverse this approach. Start with analysing what resources you already have. How do you better utilise those resources? Training? Investing in technology to boost productivity? Then – work out the best route forward for your business to utilise those existing resources. The challenge is that this could mean cutting output, or culling your lowest yielding clients…
Pay-rises
Tony made an interesting comment about what to do if your staff are asking for pay-rises, and you cannot afford them. He suggested:
- Review productivity. Can you increase productivity someway? For example, further training. Or investing in technology.
- If you can’t increase productivity, and you cannot afford the pay-rise – shut down.
- It was an interesting perspective, and potentially one of a capitalist purist – but you can’t get away from the reality that in a capacity restrained economy, the labour will go to the highest bidder. Which means the most profitable user of labour.
- Not something I necessarily agree with, but certainly an interesting perspective.
Infrastructure
The Government has made huge promises to build infrastructure and allocated billions in successive Government Budgets. The reality is they are unlikely to be able to resource these projects with labour and construction materials. And the likelihood is that they already know this…
Listen to Tony Alexander’s Budget Review, as sponsored by TMNZ, in full here:
Let’s talk.
Want to discuss how these announcements will impact your business? We are happy to help.
Angela Hodges (CA)
NZ Tax Desk Ltd
Web: www.nztaxdesk.co.nz
phone: +64 021 023 08149
*This publication contains generic information and opinion only. NZ Tax Desk Ltd is not responsible for any loss sustained by anyone relying on the contents of this publication. We recommend you obtain specific advice for your circumstances.
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